ELON, N.C. (NCN News) — With the start of the early voting period now five weeks away, the latest survey by the Elon University Poll finds that former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has an 11% lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the state’s U.S. Senate race.
Among likely voters (those who said it is “absolutely certain” or “very likely” they will vote), Cooper was favored by 49%, with Whatley favored by 38%. Eight percent were undecided and candidates Shannon Bray (Libertarian) and Michael Dublin (Green) were favored by two percent each.
Among all those who said they were registered to vote, Cooper is favored by 49% and Whatley is favored by 36%, with 14% saying they were undecided or planned to vote for someone else and 2% saying they do not plan to vote.
The survey of 800 North Carolina adults was conducted August 21-31, 2026, and has a margin of error for likely voters of 5.6%.
Seventy-two percent of poll respondents said they are registered to vote in the state, with 63% of those registered voters saying it is absolutely certain they will vote in November and another 20% saying it is very likely they will vote.
In this survey, 71% of registered voters said they had heard “a great deal” or “some” about Cooper, who was North Carolina governor from 2017 to 2025 and previously served 16 years as the state’s attorney general. In comparison, 47% said they had heard “a great deal” or “some” about Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee and the North Carolina Republican Party.
Fifteen percent said they had heard nothing at all about Whatley compared with only 4% who had heard nothing at all about Cooper.
Regardless of who they personally plan to vote for, 54% of registered voters predicted that Cooper will win the race, compared with 29% who predicted that Whatley will win.
“Despite an increase in advertising, we measured relatively little movement over the last month in voter intentions about the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, with Democratic candidate Roy Cooper maintaining a strong lead over Republican Michael Whatley,” said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll and a professor of political science and public policy. “The race continues to appear competitive among the group of voters who are highly familiar with Whatley. However, the size of that group remains relatively small and slowly growing.
“Now that we have passed Labor Day, campaigning will approach full velocity, offering some final opportunity for Whatley to increase familiarity and narrow Cooper’s lead in the race.”
Questions about the voting process
About half (51%) of registered voters said they plan to cast their votes in person during the early voting period that runs October 15-31. Thirty-five percent plan to vote in person at the polls on November 3 and only about 8% plan to cast their votes by mail.
Under state law, county election boards began distributing absentee ballots to those who had requested them on September 4.
A New York Times survey found that 40 other states had higher vote-by-mail numbers than North Carolina in 2022, when only 5 percent of ballots in the state were cast by mail. Nationwide, about one in three Americans cast their votes by mail in the 2024 general election.
In August, President Trump issued an executive order that would give the U.S. Postal Service control over the issuance of mail-in ballots in this year’s election. Following court decisions blocking that action, the Trump administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court to rule on the case, threatening to create serious questions about the voting process just weeks before the election.
“We find a substantial majority of registered voters in North Carolina to be satisfied with the status quo on length of early voting,” Husser said. “Though Democrats reported somewhat higher rates than Republicans of planning to vote early in the upcoming election, only a small minority of voters in either political party told us early voting is too long.”
In August, Gov. Josh Stein vetoed a bill passed by the North Carolina General Assembly to reduce the number of early voting days for primary elections in the state. In this survey, 56% of poll respondents said the length of the early voting period in statewide elections is about right, with 11% saying early voting is too short, 11% saying early voting is too long and 22% unsure.
Issues on voters’ minds
Among registered voters, 51% said they were extremely or very excited to cast their ballots and 83% said this year’s election was extremely or somewhat important for real-world outcomes in their lives.
Pocketbook issues were at the top of registered voters’ minds as they make their voting decisions. Eighty-six percent said inflation and the cost of living are “very important” issues, with 73% saying the general economy and healthcare are “very important.”
Other “very important” issues included taxes (66%), Social Security (64%), personal character of candidates (60%), immigration (54%), the war in Iran (50%) and the environment (43%).
Grading the health of the nation’s economy, 49% of registered voters gave grades of “D” and “F”, with 30% assigning a “C” grade and only 22% giving “A” or “B” grades.
Related to the war with Iran, 52% of registered voters opposed the U.S. military involvement compared with 31% who supported it. About 40% said a year from now America will be less safe as a result of U.S. military actions in Iran, with 30% saying America will be more safe.
“Voters are placing very high emphasis on the economy, especially the cost of living, and voters are overwhelming thinking the economy is not good,” Husser said. “This is driving a great deal of attitudes towards both President Trump and Congressional candidates of his party. While much of the national political focus over the next two months will be on the performance of individual candidates and their campaigns, many political outcomes will be influenced at least as much by the ongoing performance of the economy.”